Ukrainian Spring
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Temnozor
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Post: #701
RE: Ukrainian Spring
(2015 Apr 01 21:08)W. R. Wrote:  THIS SONUVABICH DID IT ON PURPOSE!

ALL OF MY HATE!

How will Heroes get their Salo now? This is like the Ho(h)lodomor all over again. sad

"Whoever says that he "belongs to his time" is only saying that he agrees with the largest number of fools at that moment." - Nicolás Gómez Dávila

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2015 Apr 01 21:10
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Osweo (03-04-2015)
W. R.
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Post: #702
RE: Ukrainian Spring
(2015 Mar 31 23:48)Kat Wrote:  http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/artic...18314.html

From what I know the report was not expected to contain something sensational (something to kill for), it is rather a compilation of earlier leaks.

American soldiers of fortune in Ukraine:




[...] just as it is not left unto us to choose our ancestors, so we may not choose our nation; we can only fulfil, or not fulfil, the obligations that come from being a member of our people’.
© Dr. Jan Stankievič ‘From the History of Belarus’

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2015 Apr 03 11:26
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Post: #703
RE: Ukrainian Spring
Quote:Putin is 'Playing the Madman' to Trick the West

By Elisabeth Braw / April 1, 2015 7:10 AM EDT


Muammar Gaddafi deployed a clever strategy to make sure he was always in the minds of leaders and ordinary citizens around the world: he pretended to be unhinged to confuse and frighten his adversaries. Lately Vladimir Putin seems to have adopted a similar strategy, appearing alternately depressed, out of touch with reality, or else disappearing altogether. Call it his antic disposition.

“There’s a rationale in being perceived as unpredictable,” says a recently-departed Moscow ambassador, who also knew Putin in St Petersburg. “Russian state television is aiding Putin by creating an atmosphere of collective psychosis. The Russian strategy is to scare the West by portraying Putin as unpredictable. If you’ve got a madman in power, a country’s nuclear weapons take on a completely new dimension.”

Indeed, in the past couple of years, Putin has gone out of his way to keep Russia’s arsenal in the forefront of the public consciousness. According to Martin Hellman, an emeritus professor at Stanford and adjunct fellow at the Federation of American Scientists who specialises in nuclear risk, the West hasn’t properly caught on to Putin’s Armageddon game.

“Nuclear weapons are the card that Putin has up his sleeve, and he’s using it to get the world to realise that Russia is a superpower, not just a regional power,” he explains. “The Russians can turn us into ash in less than an hour.” Less grandstanding with Putin is what is needed to prevent the madman game from ending in tragedy, Hellman argues.

The tactic has worked in the past. Gaddafi’s nuclear development programme helped him efficiently bargain with the international community. North Korea’s Kim dynasty uses the same sinister trick. In fact, a bit of perceived madness is essential to nuclear strategy.

“I call it the Madman Theory,” US president Richard Nixon told his chief of staff, Bob Haldeman, in 1969. “I want the North Vietnamese to believe that I’ve reached the point that I might do anything to stop the [Vietnam] war.” In a classified 1995 report, the US military’s Strategic Command recommends that “it hurts to portray ourselves as too fully rational and cool-headed . . . That the US may become irrational and vindictive if its vital interests are attacked should be part of the national persona we project to all adversaries”.

Irrational and vindictive: that sounds a whole lot like the current Vladimir Putin. It’s no surprise that foreign governments and intelligence agencies are frantically trying to figure out the enigmatic leader.

Several years ago, the Pentagon’s in-house thinktank made a valiant attempt, concluding that Putin suffered from Asperger’s syndrome. But the CIA is the undisputed leader of the discipline. Enlisting everything from diplomats’ observations and intelligence reports to evaluations of the subject’s public speeches and demeanour, the agency’s Centre for Analysis of Personality and Political Behaviour created dozens of personality profiles of foreign leaders.

The Agency still produces such personality assessments. CIA spokesman Todd Ebitz explains: “Today these specialised analysts still provide policymakers with keen insights on foreign leaders, but they work in units throughout the Agency’s Intelligence Directorate where they are integrated with analysts covering political, military, and economic issues.”

So how do the CIA psychologists currently assess Vladimir Putin? The Agency won’t tell. But according to professor Jerrold Post, who created and for many years led the personality analysis centre, the president “sees himself as a current-day tsar who’s responsible for Russian-speaking peoples. But the person who’s most important to him is Putin himself, not the Russian people”.

The president’s steely surface, argues Post, is a result of his being bullied as a schoolboy. “He took up martial arts so as not to be pushed around by other kids. We’re seeing the same behaviour in his leadership.” Nuclear warheads, then, are the world-leader equivalent of the bullied schoolboy’s judo skills.

American billionaire investor Bill Browder is not an entirely dispassionate Putin observer, having been expelled from Russia and seen his upstanding lawyer die a mysterious death in a Russian prison. He has, however, known Putin since his early days in power. He calls Putin a “highly rational sociopath”, who thought he had his domestic situation under control until President Yanukovich of Ukraine was brought down by the Maidan protesters. “Putin didn’t want to end up like Yanukovich, and the only reason Putin invaded Ukraine is to create a massive distraction,” he argues. Yanukovich’s helplessness in the face of angry protesters mirrors that of Putin himself, who, aided only by KGB guards, defended the Dresden KGB office in the autumn of 1989 when East German democracy protesters demanded access.

Top politicians are largely cut off from contact with ordinary people. “That changes the mind of anyone,” says a former friend of Putin’s. “But Putin’s KGB background makes him different. Other long-time leaders’ psyches change the normal way, but his is changing the KGB way: everyone else is an enemy, you can only trust the KGB network. You become paranoid.”

That paranoia fuels the madman game. “On one hand it’s easy to say that Putin is crazy,” reflects the former friend. “Because of him, now we’re starting to think about nuclear war, which is completely different from two-three years ago. But on the other hand, his actions are not crazy at all. He’ll do anything to stay in power, and using nuclear rhetoric is a means to that end. It’s effective for him, but it’s a mad strategy for Russia.” That narcissist streak was visible long ago. A West German mole at the KGB office in Dresden became good friends with Putin’s wife, Lyudmila, who told the mole that her husband beat her and was an incurable skirt chaser.

It is autocratic leaders such as Putin and Saddam Hussein who offer the most fertile soil for personality assessments, and when such leaders’ countries steer into crises, these assessments become crucial. Jimmy Carter later pointed to the importance of the CIA’s profiles of Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and President Anwar el-Sadat of Egypt, which highlighted Begin’s love of details and Sadat’s preference for big strokes as well as for having a “Nobel Prize complex”.

But psychological assessments even of the most sophisticated kind will matter little if Putin decides to press the nuclear button. So what if it results in America retaliating by annihilating Russian cities? A narcissist leader who has a problem with empathy can’t be expected to care. “The US is the world’s only conventional superpower, but Putin can avoid humiliation by nuking us,” argues Hellman. According to Browder, Putin is a thin-skinned man who can’t back down, and Hellman suggests that the West should do as marriage therapists advise: admit one’s own mistakes, thereby making it easier for one’s spouse to admit his.

Another solution would be for Putin to step down, keep the $200bn fortune Browder estimates he’s amassed and enjoy a pleasant retirement. In the past, discarded leaders have been received by sympathetic countries. Idi Amin found refuge in Saudi Arabia, as did Tunisia’s Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. The Shah of Iran shuttled between reluctant hosts until Mexico offered him sanctuary. Ferdinand Marcos spent his final years in Hawaii.

But which leader would volunteer to host Vladimir Putin? His tenacious efforts to remain in power may be disastrous, but the madman strategy is completely rational.

HERE

[...] just as it is not left unto us to choose our ancestors, so we may not choose our nation; we can only fulfil, or not fulfil, the obligations that come from being a member of our people’.
© Dr. Jan Stankievič ‘From the History of Belarus’

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2015 Apr 04 11:46
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Surtr Kvlt
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Post: #704
RE: Ukrainian Spring
Private Eye says James Shortt is making money from the Ukrainian government still, post-revolution.
[Image: DOGW749.jpg] I didn't know we exported such quality eccentric liars.

totalitARYAN
2015 Apr 09 15:24
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Osweo (13-04-2015)
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Post: #705
RE: Ukrainian Spring
Thinks Russia is waiting for peace in Ukraine and awaits new tag to the Baltic countries where they please, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as the next target even if NATO is in Estonia, including but Russia might, perhaps attacking if they use lower first sum against NATO 's and Estonia 5000 plus 3000 ground troops. Exampel for that's 20.000 ground troops for Russia.
2015 Apr 13 14:10
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Post: #706
RE: Ukrainian Spring
Not very fresh, but maybe worth a read:

Quote:014 "End of Year" report and a look into what 2015 might bring

Introduction:
By any measure 2014 has been a truly historic year which saw huge, I would say, even tectonic developments. This year ends in very high instability, and the future looks hard to guess. I don't think that anybody can confidently predict what might happen next year. So what I propose to do today is something far more modest. I want to look into some of the key events of 2014 and think of them as vectors with a specific direction and magnitude. I want to look in which direction a number of key actors (countries) "moved" this year and with what degree of intensity. Then I want to see whether it is likely that they will change course or determination. Then adding up all the "vectors" of these key actors (countries) I want to make a calculation and see what resulting vector we will obtain for the next year. Considering the large number of "unknown unknowns" (to quote Rumsfeld) this exercise will not result in any kind of real prediction, but my hope is that it will prove a useful analytical reference.

The main event and the main actors
A comprehensive analysis of 2014 should include most major countries on the planet, but this would be too complicated and, ultimately, useless. I think that it is indisputable that the main event of 2014 has been the war in the Ukraine. This crisis not only overshadowed the still ongoing Anglo-Zionist attack on Syria, but it pitted the world's only two nuclear superpowers (Russia and the USA) directly against each other. And while some faraway countries did have a minor impact on the Ukrainian crisis, especially the BRICS, I don't think that a detailed discussion of South African or Brazilian politics would contribute much. There is a short list of key actors whose role warrants a full analysis. They are:
The USA
The Ukrainian Junta
The Novorussians (DNR+LNR)
Russia
The EU
NATO
China
I submit that these seven actors account for 99.99% of the events in the Ukraine and that an analysis of the stance of each one of them is crucial. So let's take them one by one:
...
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com.es/201...-into.html

"And now if a whole nation fell into that? In such a case, I answer, infallibly they will return out of it. For life is no cunningly-devised deception or self deception, it is a great truth that thou art alive, that thou hast desires, necessities: neither can these subsist and satisfy themselves on delusions, but on fact. To fact, depend on it, we shall come back: to such fact, blessed or cursed, as we have wisdom for."
Thomas Carlyle
2015 Apr 16 15:18
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Aptrgangr (25-04-2015)
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Post: #707
RE: Ukrainian Spring











"The secret to happiness is freedom... And the secret to freedom is courage."
Thucydides

“My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.” Carl Schurz

"Both oligarch and tyrant mistrust the people, and therefore deprive them of their arms."
Aristotle

"Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." Thucydides
2015 Apr 25 16:35
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Osweo (25-04-2015)
Temnozor
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Post: #708
RE: Ukrainian Spring
Novorossia photo thread and Q&A on Russian imageboard:
https://2ch.hk/nvr/res/773164.html

"Whoever says that he "belongs to his time" is only saying that he agrees with the largest number of fools at that moment." - Nicolás Gómez Dávila

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2015 Apr 28 15:50
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Post: #709
RE: Ukrainian Spring
(2015 Jan 23 19:54)Godyfa Wrote:  Dec 14:

Quote: The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees says 490,000 Ukrainians have registered as internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine, while 430,000 have sought asylum or other forms of legal status in Russia
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/201...s-refugees

So more Donbas people have fled to other parts of Ukraine than to Russia.

New data. Internally displaced persons by Ukrainian regions:

[Image: protyahom-tyzhnya-z-okupovanyx-terytorij...origin.png]

[...] just as it is not left unto us to choose our ancestors, so we may not choose our nation; we can only fulfil, or not fulfil, the obligations that come from being a member of our people’.
© Dr. Jan Stankievič ‘From the History of Belarus’

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2015 May 03 19:35
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Osweo
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Post: #710
RE: Ukrainian Spring
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Russians and Ukrainians.
How they see themselves.
How they are.

"And now if a whole nation fell into that? In such a case, I answer, infallibly they will return out of it. For life is no cunningly-devised deception or self deception, it is a great truth that thou art alive, that thou hast desires, necessities: neither can these subsist and satisfy themselves on delusions, but on fact. To fact, depend on it, we shall come back: to such fact, blessed or cursed, as we have wisdom for."
Thomas Carlyle
2015 May 08 23:14
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