Russian hybrid war in Belarus
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Russian hybrid war in Belarus
From a Banderist site, so I'm not taking it too seriously, but it is interesting to see that Belorussians on the EU payrole are busy spreading such ideas. How do you view the analysis, WR?
Quote:Viktor Denisenko, a Belarusian researcher at the University of Vilnius, says that a Russian hybrid war in Belarus could take one of two forms – “with Lukashenka” or “without Lukashenka” – but that in either case, Belarus would likely lose not only the conflict but its sovereignty as a country.

In a report to the Congress of Belarusian Researchers earlier this month, Denisenko noted the term “hybrid war” had been popularized by the US at the end of the 1990s and used with extraordinary effectiveness by Russia since that time.

Although the term “hybrid war” did not appear in the Russian-language Internet until 2009, in fact, Moscow had been practicing it for some time. In Denisenko’s view, “elements of hybrid war were in the the Soviet-Finnish war of 1939, the annexation of the Baltic countries by the USSR in 1940,” the invasion of Georgia in 2008, and the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

In all these conflicts, he pointed out, “Russia acted quickly, harshly, ignored international norms, and denied obvious events. Drawing on this practical experience,” he said, “one can conclude that at present, Russia is the most experienced country as far as the conduct of hybrid operations is concerned.”

Denisenko said that the best definition of hybrid war, at least from the Russian perspective, has been offered by Georgy Pocheptsov who described is “a model of war which seeks to conceal its military character and also the participation in it of governmental structures.” Thus, constantly changing disinformation becomes critical to its success.

With regard to Belarus, he argued, there are two possible variants. The first, which could be called “without Lukashenka,” would arise in a situation in which the current Belarusian president would have somehow left his post. Moscow would then declare any succeeding government “illegitimate” and seek to overthrow it by supporting pro-Russian forces within Belarus in the name of stability and the defense of its “compatriots.”

But the second variant of hybrid war would be one “with Lukashenka” still in place and the Kremlin deciding to removing him from office, first by spreading compromising materials about him and then by more active measures. In this case, Davidenko said, Moscow would talk about defending a fraternal people and ensuring stability as well.

In either case, Denisenko suggested, Belarus would likely lose and become either a Russian protectorate or be directly incorporated into the Russian Federation with the complete loss of its sovereignty. He said he does not see any possibility that Belarus could win if Moscow were intent on victory and can only hope that this situation does not arise.

While Denisenko does not discuss what might make that possible, the obvious answer would be a change in the position of the West which despite its differences with the Lukashenka regime would make clear that any move to destroy the Belarusian state would be opposed by the United States, the European Union and NATO.

That dual-state arrangement you have with Moscow is still in effect, isn't it? Might have some relevance here, though the Western powers seem to have little regard for its sovereignty! thumbs up

"And now if a whole nation fell into that? In such a case, I answer, infallibly they will return out of it. For life is no cunningly-devised deception or self deception, it is a great truth that thou art alive, that thou hast desires, necessities: neither can these subsist and satisfy themselves on delusions, but on fact. To fact, depend on it, we shall come back: to such fact, blessed or cursed, as we have wisdom for."
Thomas Carlyle
2015 Nov 09 10:21
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W. R.
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RE: Russian hybrid war in Belarus
(2015 Nov 09 10:21)Osweo Wrote:  How do you view the analysis, WR?

Hm... One doesn't really have to be a researcher at a university to write such an analysis as the one above.

I don't think any time soon Russia will bother to invade Belarus. Why would it? The recent wars waged by Russia have been caused by hurt imperialistic feelings, by the wish to show that the Russian bear is still strong. Luka doesn't hurt these feelings in any way, he doesn't strive for the EU or the NATO, repeats how positively he feels towards Russians.

But if he died today, it would create vacuum of power and certainly Russia would do everything possible to make sure that the next head of the state is weaker and more dependent on Russia than Luka. In this case scenario the probability of invasion increases.

A while ago I watched an interview with a military expert, who was asked whether the Belarusian army is going to to put up resistance in the case of invasion, or the invasion is going to be like the invasion of the Crimea, bloodless; he said that it depends on how well the counterintelligence works. He believes the Belarusian counterintelligence works well, so if the day X comes, the Belarusian army will take up arms and begin to shoot. And it's probable that Luka would give the order to fire: after all he condemned the Ukrainian authorities for not fighting for the Crimea.

The invasion of Belarus could cost many lives of Russian soldiers, and Russian leaders must take this into consideration as long as they are sane.

(2015 Nov 09 10:21)Osweo Wrote:  That dual-state arrangement you have with Moscow is still in effect, isn't it?

It is, but now it is more like a set of mutual preferences that each country provides for citizens of the other country. The Eurasian Customs Union is a more real thing as for now.

[...] just as it is not left unto us to choose our ancestors, so we may not choose our nation; we can only fulfil, or not fulfil, the obligations that come from being a member of our people’.
© Dr. Jan Stankievič ‘From the History of Belarus’

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2015 Nov 09 14:56
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RE: Russian hybrid war in Belarus
God bless the Union State, though, because it allows me to move to glorious Belarus without going through thousands of bureaucratical instances first! May the sun shine brightly on it! thumbs up

"Whoever says that he "belongs to his time" is only saying that he agrees with the largest number of fools at that moment." - Nicolás Gómez Dávila

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2015 Nov 09 22:13
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Osweo (10-11-2015)


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RE: Russian hybrid war in Belarus
(2015 Nov 09 14:56)W. R. Wrote:  The invasion of Belarus could cost many lives of Russian soldiers, and Russian leaders must take this into consideration as long as they are sane.

Amen to that. Let's hope they are sane enough not to invade any more neighbouring countries.
2015 Nov 09 22:36
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