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**Mustapaita** · (09-01-2017)

Quote: How would the Russian influence manifest itself? Serious question, I want to know what they are panicked about. I exclude military threats.

Surely you can imagine pressures other than military? Without a strong support to lean on, Estonia would be in similar situation as Finland during the cold war, i.e. Russia could quite freely interfere in their domestic politics. Not the end of the world but they do not want that.

Quote: What prevents the Eastern Europeans from creating an alternative regional union? Corruption and dependence on Brussels. They all opted for this instead of pursuing a more sovereign course, so they will have to take the blame for their decisions.

There needs to be some kind of vision and idea of moving forwards and willingness to go forward with it. To suddenly break with the EU and go on a totally new endeavour is not something that happens suddenly or quickly.

Quote:Right, but this is a time bomb. The EU is already trying to undermine Poland, they will also come for Estonia when they feel they need to. Also, being in the EU opens you up to influence from Cultural Marxist NGOs – they are working heavily in Eastern Europe.

No doubt. Still, Estonians and many others prefer it to the alternatives, or rather lack thereof.

Quote: Right, but this is a time bomb. The EU is already trying to undermine Poland, they will also come for Estonia when they feel they need to. Also, being in the EU opens you up to influence from Cultural Marxist NGOs – they are working heavily in Eastern Europe.

There is also the argument to be made that Poland is undermining the EU rule book.

Quote: Sure, but the institution itself is corrupt and oligarchic. Not worth to reform what's more easily abolished.

Sure it is. Not to mention absolutely ineffective. But this is the world we live in. I wish there was a better alternative but currently it's nowhere to be seen. I'm not pro-EU but Europeans need a degree of political unity to deal with external threats with strength (from Russia to the refugee invasion) and this is especially important to countries like Estonia. EU ineffectiveness is what is most of all eating at its credibility and undermining its appeal. I don't know if the project can be salvaged, probably not. We small countries on the periphery however want a political (and military) union ( many other W. European countries don't share the outlook for natural reasons).

**Aptrgangr** · (09-01-2017)

The Civic Solution to the Estonian Identity Crisis

1. Conflict and Crisis
Recent years have seen fluctuating tensions in the relationship between theRepublic of Estonia and the Russian Federation on the inter-state level, in addition tosimilarly varying degrees of tension between the ethnic Estonian majority and the ethnicRussian minority on Estonia’s intra-state level. While these tensions are not alwaysimmediately apparent on the domestic level, there have been outbreaks of civil disorder inEstonia that are very much a result of these tensions.For example, in early 2007, tensions rose considerably amidst the relocation of theBronze Soldier monument, a controversial Second World War memorial that was builtduring the Soviet occupation of Estonia. The monument was moved from central Tallinn tothe Estonian Defence Cemetery. Initial peaceful protests turned into riots, in which one person was killed. Meanwhile, the country experienced massive and comprehensive cyber attacks. Government websites were defaced or crashed – such as the websites of President Toomas Hendrik Ilves and the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament) – and SEB Eesti Uhispank was forced to restrict access to its online banking services to only Estonia. (...)

http://www.academia.edu/1147341/The_Civi...ity_Crisis

**Temnozor** · (09-01-2017)

(2017 Jan 09 21:56)Mustapaita Wrote: Surely you can imagine pressures other than military? Without a strong support to lean on, Estonia would be in similar situation as Finland during the cold war, i.e. Russia could quite freely interfere in their domestic politics. Not the end of the world but they do not want that.

I would like some specifics as to how Russian influence in a neutral Estonia would make it worse than being in the EU. I understand that being part of the USSR was worse for them than being part of the EU, but that's not the choice that is offered now. I see why they hate Russia for historical reasons, but that makes their attitudes to present day Russia unreasonable to me.

What I can imagine: Russia tends to engage in trade wars and boycotts with some of its neighbors when they upset it in a way, but that can be counteracted by trade diversification. Only if the EU would refuse to trade with an independent Estonia I see how that would be a problem.

(2017 Jan 09 21:56)Mustapaita Wrote: There needs to be some kind of vision and idea of moving forwards and willingness to go forward with it. To suddenly break with the EU and go on a totally new endeavour is not something that happens suddenly or quickly.

Sure. The fatal decision were made in 1990 and I hold these countries accountable for the path they chose when independence was offered to them. Russia remained a sovereign state, Eastern Europe just changed blocks.

(2017 Jan 09 21:56)Mustapaita Wrote: I'm not pro-EU but Europeans need a degree of political unity to deal with external threats with strength (from Russia to the refugee invasion) and this is especially important to countries like Estonia. EU ineffectiveness is what is most of all eating at its credibility and undermining its appeal. I don't know if the project can be salvaged, probably not. We small countries on the periphery however want a political (and military) union ( many other W. European countries don't share the outlook for natural reasons).

I'm all for Pan-European cooperation and I don't actually see why Russia should be excluded from this. I'd wish for a peaceful free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok, where independent nations can freely cooperate with each other. I also fail to see why you perceive modern Russia as a threat at all. From my point of view – and I invite you to reasonably object to it – it is Russia that is under siege by the West, not the other way around. We were only in retreat for the last 30 years, NATO has moved ever closer to our borders and was for a long time meddling in our internal affairs (it still does).

Even our few interventions were just reactions to foreign agression. In South Ossetia, the Georgians attacked and killed our military personnell that had an international peacekeeping mandate to be there. That would actually have justified going all the way to Tbilisi, but Russia has merely restored the status quo. In Ukraine, a coup d'etat has happened that would not have been possible without Western financial and logistical assistance. It was a massive provocation and a threat to our most vital national security interests, it could not remain unanswered. Not to mention that this was the second coup of this kind.

I understand that we were the baddies when the commies were still in charge, or at least the less preferrable option at the time, but Russia is not the USSR. Our present government is quite nationalistic and our laws favor traditionalism. Meanwhile, the West adopted Cultural Marxism, so you are the cancer now.

**Mustapaita** · (10-01-2017)

(2017 Jan 09 22:41)Temnozor Wrote: I would like some specifics as to how Russian influence in a neutral Estonia would make it worse than being in the EU. I understand that being part of the USSR was worse for them than being part of the EU, but that's not the choice that is offered now. I see why they hate Russia for historical reasons, but that makes their attitudes to present day Russia unreasonable to me.

How are they unreasonable? By becoming members of NATO?

They want to be part of the West and they detest Russia with it's autocratic government, illiberal society, corruption etc. Not being a part of the EU would open them up to increased Russian meddling in their affairs and less choices with their co-operation to the West. May be it's a bit of a "pick your poison" -scenario, but Estonians are in no doubt about which they prefer. And even if Russia was on the path of becoming a more "European" country, historical and national memories are long term stuff not quickly mended.

Quote:What I can imagine: Russia tends to engage in trade wars and boycotts with some of its neighbors when they upset it in a way, but that can be counteracted by trade diversification. Only if the EU would refuse to trade with an independent Estonia I see how that would be a problem.

Obviously we do not know what the world would look like without EU and NATO membership but Estonians can surely look at Ukraine, Georgia, etc and see the worst case scenarios. Point is, westward integration is a guarantee against such eventualities, however probable or improbable they may appear.

Quote: Sure. The fatal decision were made in 1990 and I hold these countries accountable for the path they chose when independence was offered to them. Russia remained a sovereign state, Eastern Europe just changed blocks.

Still, on the sovereignty side they've obviously gained compared to the past and they've got guarantees against going back to the same old Moscow domination. In their eyes this is a tremendous achievement and gain even if you choose to view it in terms of exchanging one master for another. The Estonian generations that remember the Soviet times view it quite differently, as do their descendants. They live better and freer and they know it.

Quote:I'm all for Pan-European cooperation and I don't actually see why Russia should be excluded from this. I'd wish for a peaceful free trade zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok, where independent nations can freely cooperate with each other. I also fail to see why you perceive modern Russia as a threat at all. From my point of view – and I invite you to reasonably object to it – it is Russia that is under siege by the West, not the other way around. We were only in retreat for the last 30 years, NATO has moved ever closer to our borders and was for a long time meddling in our internal affairs (it still does).

Russia is not only excluded by the West but also excludes herself, in part merely by being the last European great power. And I do not perceive Russia as an acute threat but as a potential threat. The real threat is in high tensions leading to escalation imo. This is why I'd like to see a strong European bloc that would be more independent of American global agendas and could deal more reasonably with Russia, lessening tensions. Then, perhaps, we could move towards this pan-European group hug that would include Russia. Dismantling the European threat means Russia grows more powerful in its near abroad and will be tempted by the old traditions of imperial politics. I can also see that Russians see that they're being surrounded, with just cause. It's a tricky situation and the best medicine imo is a Europe less dependent on America and less involved in its hegemonic agenda with a stronger will of its own. But no matter how in the "wrong" the West would be or how in the "right" Russia would be, Estonians would never side with Russia.

Quote: I understand that we were the baddies when the commies were still in charge, or at least the less preferrable option at the time, but Russia is not the USSR. Our present government is quite nationalistic and our laws favor traditionalism. Meanwhile, the West adopted Cultural Marxism, so you are the cancer now.

Still, I wouldn't trade places with say Belarus. Smile

**Temnozor** · (10-01-2017)

Quote:How are they unreasonable? By becoming members of NATO?

They want to be part of the West and they detest Russia with it's autocratic government, illiberal society, corruption etc. Not being a part of the EU would open them up to increased Russian meddling in their affairs and less choices with their co-operation to the West. May be it's a bit of a "pick your poison" -scenario, but Estonians are in no doubt about which they prefer. And even if Russia was on the path of becoming a more "European" country, historical and national memories are long term stuff not quickly mended.

I asked you for specifics of how "Russian influence" on Estonia would look like and what would be so horrible about it. You didn't provide an answer. Other than that: Russia doesn't need to become a European country, we are one. One of the continent's traditional Great Powers, actually.

Quote:Obviously we do not know what the world would look like without EU and NATO membership but Estonians can surely look at Ukraine, Georgia, etc and see the worst case scenarios. Point is, westward integration is a guarantee against such eventualities, however probable or improbable they may appear.

Point in case. Ukraine and Georgia were Western provocations that caused a Russian backlash, I went into detail on both cases in my post above. If the West were to use the Baltics for similar shenanigans, they would end up on our radar. A situation easily averted by staying neutral.

Quote:Still, on the sovereignty side they've obviously gained compared to the past and they've got guarantees against going back to the same old Moscow domination. In their eyes this is a tremendous achievement and gain even if you choose to view it in terms of exchanging one master for another. The Estonian generations that remember the Soviet times view it quite differently, as do their descendants. They live better and freer and they know it.

I don't mind, the consequences are not mine to deal with, nor my country's. Depending on how far the EU experiment goes, they might start to see the USSR in a different light.

Quote:Russia is not only excluded by the West but also excludes herself, in part merely by being the last European great power.

The way things stand right now, yes. Because Americans got drunk on their power and Europeans turned into degenerates. We have no interest whatsoever to join the party. If Europe returns to nationalism, we could cooperate. Sadly, it could be worked on already, but the EU prevents it. Russia could be friendly with Hungary, Serbia and Italy already wouldn't it be for pressure from Brussels on these countries.

A lot of the nationalist parties in Europe are pro-Russian. I'm excited to see what comes of it if they succeed.

Quote:Dismantling the European threat means Russia grows more powerful in its near abroad and will be tempted by the old traditions of imperial politics.

Reasonably speaking, Belarus and Ukraine are the only regions of "imperial" interest to us. I'm putting imperial in quotation marks not because I dislike the imperial idea (Tsar Nikolai did nothing wrong), but because these are our kin. Like Eestis and Koreans are yours.

Quote:It's a tricky situation and the best medicine imo is a Europe less dependent on America and less involved in its hegemonic agenda with a stronger will of its own.

I agree, though small countries like Estonia might actually be left out in such a case, unless as I have suggested they find allies in the V4 and other close countries. The nationalists in the other "Great" European countries like France and Germany tend to be pro-Russian, not russophobic. Actually, it's America that cares for the Baltics the most, not Europe.

Quote:But no matter how in the "wrong" the West would be or how in the "right" Russia would be, Estonians would never side with Russia.

Not like we need them either. I'd even support a repatriation of the local Russians.

Quote:Still, I wouldn't trade places with say Belarus.

Too bad, Belarus is lovely.

**Mustapaita** · (10-01-2017)

Quote: I asked you for specifics of how "Russian influence" on Estonia would look like and what would be so horrible about it. You didn't provide an answer. Other than that: Russia doesn't need to become a European country, we are one. One of the continent's traditional Great Powers, actually.

How can I be specific about hypothetical scenarios in fictional timeline? Russia would have a freer hand at meddling in their internal affairs using proxies (like the west uses ngos for example), economic pressure, with the ever looming threat of military force.

As for the European country bit, did you really not understand what I meant?

Quote:Point in case. Ukraine and Georgia were Western provocations that caused a Russian backlash, I went into detail on both cases in my post above. If the West were to use the Baltics for similar shenanigans, they would end up on our radar. A situation easily averted by staying neutral.

Russia has intervened far more heavily in the Ukraine than the West ever did. Again, what kind of sovereignty is neutrality enforced by Russian military threat? Estonia has no need for such neutrality when it would come with increased Russian influence.

Quote: I don't mind, the consequences are not mine to deal with, nor my country's. Depending on how far the EU experiment goes, they might start to see the USSR in a different light.

We'll see

Quote:The way things stand right now, yes. Because Americans got drunk on their power and Europeans turned into degenerates. We have no interest whatsoever to join the party. If Europe returns to nationalism, we could cooperate. Sadly, it could be worked on already, but the EU prevents it. Russia could be friendly with Hungary, Serbia and Italy already wouldn't it be for pressure from Brussels on these countries.

A lot of the nationalist parties in Europe are pro-Russian. I'm excited to see what comes of it if they succeed.

EU was supposed to make Europe more independent from America. The only way to get America out of European affairs is for Europe to become stronger in their own right.

Quote: Reasonably speaking, Belarus and Ukraine are the only regions of "imperial" interest to us. I'm putting imperial in quotation marks not because I dislike the imperial idea (Tsar Nikolai did nothing wrong), but because these are our kin. Like Eestis and Koreans are yours.

Reasonably speaking, that is the way things stand now. Could look different without EU & NATO.

Quote: I agree, though small countries like Estonia might actually be left out in such a case, unless as I have suggested they find allies in the V4 and other close countries. The nationalists in the other "Great" European countries like France and Germany tend to be pro-Russian, not russophobic. Actually, it's America that cares for the Baltics the most, not Europe.

Why would a strong Europe leave the Baltics in a lurch? T-they're not Baltophobic are they? sad

Quote: Not like we need them either. I'd even support a repatriation of the local Russians.

They don't want you, you don't need them. Seems harmonious enough Big Grin

Quote: Too bad, Belarus is lovely.

I'm sure it is Big Grin

**Temnozor** · (10-01-2017)

(2017 Jan 10 01:57)Mustapaita Wrote: How can I be specific about hypothetical scenarios in fictional timeline? Russia would have a freer hand at meddling in their internal affairs using proxies (like the west uses ngos for example), economic pressure, with the ever looming threat of military force.

Well, if you can't give me an example of the ominous "Russian influence" and how it would negatively affect Estonia, it just sounds like "ze Roosians are coming, hide ze wiminz". Even for hypothetical scenarios you can give hypothetical examples. NGOs can be banned, Russia did so. And what would they actually do? Lobby Eestis to join the glorious Tsardom? Top kek, good luck with that!

As I've said, I exclude military force as a reasonable option, unless it's part of a bigger conflict (i.e. WWIII).

(2017 Jan 10 01:57)Mustapaita Wrote: As for the European country bit, did you really not understand what I meant?

I did. I just disagree with the sentiment.

(2017 Jan 10 01:57)Mustapaita Wrote: Russia has intervened far more heavily in the Ukraine than the West ever did. Again, what kind of sovereignty is neutrality enforced by Russian military threat? Estonia has no need for such neutrality when it would come with increased Russian influence.

Nope, we didn't start two coups in Ukraine. The fact that the population in Eastern Ukraine (and from empirical experience I would say in all big cities of central Ukraine too, including Kiev) leans towards integration with Russia and actually stood up in arms for it might not sit well with Western interests, but that has nothing to do with Russian intervention. The last democratically elected government was pro-Russian.

I don't understand how Russia's military can enforce anyones neutrality? We respected Austria's neutrality and yours and continue to do so.

(2017 Jan 10 01:57)Mustapaita Wrote: EU was supposed to make Europe more independent from America. The only way to get America out of European affairs is for Europe to become stronger in their own right.

That's what has been sold to the people back then, it never was the true purpose of the EU.

(2017 Jan 10 01:57)Mustapaita Wrote: Why would a strong Europe leave the Baltics in a lurch? T-they're not Baltophobic are they?

Russian market has more shekels. And they are on our gas needle, besides other things.

(2017 Jan 10 01:57)Mustapaita Wrote: I'm sure it is

Minsk is a bit ghettoish, but you'd be surprised how "European" the regional capitals are. In a positive sense, I don't mean there are Niggers shitting in the streets. LOL

**Mustapaita** · (10-01-2017)

Quote:Well, if you can't give me an example of the ominous "Russian influence" and how it would negatively affect Estonia, it just sounds like "ze Roosians are coming, hide ze wiminz". Even for hypothetical scenarios you can give hypothetical examples. NGOs can be banned, Russia did so. And what would they actually do? Lobby Eestis to join the glorious Tsardom? Top kek, good luck with that!

I said it would be something akin to Finlandisation. Isn't this concrete enough? I've hardly been shrill in tone.

Quote: I did. I just disagree with the sentiment.

Then you misunderstood.

Quote:Nope, we didn't start two coups in Ukraine. The fact that the population in Eastern Ukraine (and from empirical experience I would say in all big cities of central Ukraine too, including Kiev) leans towards integration with Russia and actually stood up in arms for it might not sit well with Western interests, but that has nothing to do with Russian intervention. The last democratically elected government was pro-Russian.

Direct military intervention and annexing part of the country must count for something. Poisoning of Yushchenko, too, etc.

Quote:I don't understand how Russia's military can enforce anyones neutrality? We respected Austria's neutrality and yours and continue to do so.

Russia didn't respect Ukraine's sovreignty and intervened militarily when it looked like it might "defect" to the west.

Quote:That's what has been sold to the people back then, it never was the true purpose of the EU.

Yes it was.

Quote:Minsk is a bit ghettoish, but you'd be surprised how "European" the regional capitals are.

It is a bit of police state compared to other European countries though.

**Temnozor** · (10-01-2017)

(2017 Jan 10 09:01)Mustapaita Wrote: I said it would be something akin to Finlandisation. Isn't this concrete enough? I've hardly been shrill in tone.

'Finlandisation' itself isn't a concrete thing, it's a term made up by politicians in Western Germany as an argument against Stalin's suggestion to reunify Germany as a neutral country back in the early 50s. As a consequence, they have subjected Eastern Germany to 40 years of communism – a fate easily avoided. Finland benefitted more from exclusive trade with the Soviet Union than it was ever harmed during the period in question. Also, again: Russia is not the Soviet Union.

(2017 Jan 10 09:01)Mustapaita Wrote: Direct military intervention and annexing part of the country must count for something. Poisoning of Yushchenko, too, etc.

The latter isn't proven to be a Russian plot, besides Yushchenko also being a Western puppet that was installed by a coup, not through elections. The military intervention was a reaction to a coup d'etat. Ukraine would still have Crimea if Soros wouldn't have played his dirty games there.

(2017 Jan 10 09:01)Mustapaita Wrote: It is a bit of police state compared to other European countries though.

Depends on where you're comming from. It's better than Germany, where people go to jail for posts they made on Facebook. I only dislike that it's so socialist.

**Mustapaita** · (10-01-2017)

Quote:'Finlandisation' itself isn't a concrete thing, it's a term made up by politicians in Western Germany as an argument against Stalin's suggestion to reunify Germany as a neutral country back in the early 50s. As a consequence, they have subjected Eastern Germany to 40 years of communism – a fate easily avoided.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization

[quote]Finland benefitted more from exclusive trade with the Soviet Union than it was ever harmed during the period in question. Also, again: Russia is not the Soviet Union.

Still, Finns of that period don't yearn a return to those relations. My parents for example detested those times. Now imagine what people in a country with a similar culture but one that underwent actual occupation with all it entailed think. It doesn't matter that Russia isn't USSR and is greatly weakened. Steps were taken so it would not be possible again for Russia to exert such influence even if it wished to. I've been saying this all along. Westward integration was not a reaction to any acute threats or circumstances, it was done when it was politically possible as soon as possible so that a return to the "good old days" became more or less impossible.

Quote: Depends on where you're comming from. It's better than Germany, where people go to jail for posts they made on Facebook. I only dislike that it's so socialist.

I'd prefer Germany.

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